We generally try and predict the future based on past experience. In other words, if event X took place yesterday – and on every other day before that for as long as we can remember – there’s an excellent chance it will again happen today. Right? According to author Nassim Taleb, this sort of complacent non-reasoning leaves us as wide open to a Black Swan, the name he’s given to highly improbable events with a huge impact.

Back to the Thanksgiving turkey. Throughout its short life, it is conditioned to believe humans are caring. After all, the farmer looks after it, keeping it warm and well fed. Based on past experience, the turkey has no reason to believe that the day before Thanksgiving will be unlike any other day. But on that particular day, the bird experiences the full impact of a Black Swan.

Perhaps the most well-known Black Swan in recent history is 9/11, when a co-ordinated terrorist attack took the entire world by surprise. I haven’t finished the book yet, but I warmly recommend it. It’s not always an easy read; Taleb’s reasoning is complex, drawing on a wide range of intellectual disciplines. Whether it makes readers any better at anticipating Black Swans (which by their nature are virtually impossible to predict) is perhaps overly optimistic, but it is at least helping this reader to question his expectations.